Oil Famine is not about the lack of oil. Oil Famine occurs as social instability breaks the long and complex supply chain required to extract and deliver oil energy.
Life requires energy. Oil energy is capital-intensive. When capital fails to invest, Oil Famine results. Syria represents the first wave of Oil Famine:
- 1960, Population was 4.5 million as their oil boom started.
- 1996, Syria Peak Oil occurred. Life requires energy, less energy, less life.
- 2010, Oil energy production depleted to 3/5ths. Social stress reached a tipping point, capital stopped investing in oil infrastructure.
- 90% collapse of access to oil energy, mass migration, general domestic war and the emergence of raider culture (ISIS) scavanging off the remaining resources - Oil Famine.
Oil Famine is not a lack of oil. It is a supply chain collapse.
Resources to understand the coming Oil Famine:
- Dr. Hubbert's 1956 presentation of US Peak Oil by 1970. He was right on the money.
- Admiral Rickover's 1957 speech on "energy slaves." Illicit Energy is dependence on energy outside self-reliance. Federal support for foreign oil exactly repeats the path to war of Federal support for slavery.
- 2005 ABC-Australia documetary on Peak Oil.
- Energy Economic, part of the Crash Course by Chris Martinson
- Eight Presidents declaring oil addiction a threat to national security.
- Proved by oil-dollar funded terrorism and oil-wars.
- Five Presidential vetoe messages of why Federal oil-powered infrastructure is unconstitutional (Madison, Monroe, Jackson, Polk, and Buchanan).
Geology is slow and relentless. US Peak Oil was in 1970. Until US Peak Oil, the price of gasoline was stable.
Regardless of our wishes. life requires energy and oil is finite. The unconstitutional Federal highway monopoly binds the survival of Americans to oil. This oil addiction is terminal by about 2019.
Fracking is desperation, not a solution.
“Extraordinary advances in technology have transformed energy exploration and production. Yet we produce 39 percent less oil today than we did in 1970, leaving us ever more reliant on foreign suppliers. On our present course, America 20 years from now will import nearly two of every three barrels of oil–a condition of increased dependency on foreign powers that do not always have America’s interests at heart."
May 16, 2001 - National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group established by President Bush, Chairman Vice President Chaney
US Peak Oil was in 1970. Lives and nations powered by oil are terminal. The near collapse in 2008 will replay by about 2020.
Peak Oil is not about a lack of oil; there is a lot of oil left in America. Peak Oil is the economic event that occurs when the cost to extract oil exceeds the price people can afford to buy gasoline made from it.
The Law of Supply and Demand:
Between 1970 and 2008, depleting US oil production created four trends that shape America's present:
- Transfer of wealth from the US to the Middle East - As US oil production decreased, the Federal government borrowed $18 trillion against the future labor of America's children to buy and defend access to foreign oil to power its unconstitutional highway monopoly (see Illicit Energy, Divided Sovereignty and Internal Improvements). Vast cities were built in the Middle East on this wealth.
- Funding of enemies with oil-dollars - Part of this transfer of wealth to the Middle East funded radical regimes and terrorism.
- Oil-wars and occupation of the Middle East since 1991 to secure access to foreign oil - With occupation, terrorists had a visible emblem to rally people to their cause with US oil-dollars suppling the money.
- Rising gasoline prices between 1998 and 2008 - US families lost between $2,000 and $4,155 in disposable income (see metric of Disposable Energy). Incrementally families used their mortage payments to buy gasoline to fund their commute and keep their jobs.
In September 2008, debt and foreclosures nearly crippled the world economy. Instead of solving the problem by exercising the self-discipline to become energy self-reliant, the Federal "bailout" borrowed an additional $6 and $14 trillion. The zero interest rates caused $200 billion to be invested in Fracking.
Frackers, deploying 2,000 drilling rigs for years, used this investment to increase US Oil production by 5 million barrels per day (mb/d). When Saudi Arabia did not cut its production to match the US increase, oil prices dropped, Frackers went bankrupt, and the number of drilling rigs dropped to 400.
Fracking and recession bought time. US Peak Fracking was in June 2015. Since Peak Fracking, US oil production has been decreasing at 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) per year. This is the equivalent of one 1973 Oil Embargo. This rate of decline will continue for at least 3 more year. Before 2020, decreasing US oil production and increasing dependence on foreign oil will repeat the crisis of 2008. Life requires energy. Oil is finite. Life powered by oil is terminal.
Logistics have mass and momentum. Like watching two ship on a collision, the crisis resulting from momentum is created long before the actual impact. We will experience a crisis exceeding 2008 by 2020 based on logistical momentum. We cannot avoid the crisis. We can only mitigate the harm.